Four Factors Framework

2026-27 regular season · 15 teams

How the Model Works

Dean Oliver identified four key factors that explain ~90% of a team's offensive and defensive efficiency. Each factor has an empirically-derived weight. The same four factors apply to both offense and defense — giving you 8 levers total.

Offense

Eff. FG%
40%
TOV Rate
25%
Off. Reb%
20%
FT Rate
15%

Defense

Opp. eFG%
40%
Opp. TOV Rate
25%
Opp. Off. Reb%
20%
Opp. FT Rate
15%

2026-27 Factor Leaders

Eff. FG%

54.5

IND

Indiana Fever

TOV Rate

14.2

DAL

Dallas Wings

Off. Reb%

36.8

ATL

Atlanta Dream

FT Rate

40.3

WAS

Washington Mystics

Opp. eFG%

47.9

SEA

Seattle Storm

Opp. TOV Rate

21.3

ATL

Atlanta Dream

Opp. Off. Reb%

26.2

IND

Indiana Fever

Opp. FT Rate

25.9

NYL

New York Liberty

Click headers to sort · Score = weighted composite

#TeamW-LNet ▼eFG%TOV%ORB%FTrScore
1MINMinnesota Lynx19-6+10.4
54.4
17.0
33.1
26.8
68
#1
2GSVGolden State Valkyries18-7+7.5
50.0
15.3
32.5
29.4
52
#7
3INDIndiana Fever14-10+5.5
54.5
18.6
32.7
33.2
68
#2
4DALDallas Wings16-8+5.4
52.2
14.2
30.2
24.3
58
#4
5LVALas Vegas Aces17-7+4.8
54.4
15.7
27.7
29.8
64
#3
6ATLAtlanta Dream14-10+4.4
49.3
17.3
36.8
34.6
55
#6
7NYLNew York Liberty13-11+4.1
53.6
19.2
30.5
33.4
56
#5
8CHIChicago Sky8-16-3.0
49.1
16.4
28.5
35.8
40
#10
9TORToronto Tempo10-14-4.1
52.1
17.0
27.9
32.1
49
#8
10WASWashington Mystics12-11-4.1
47.5
21.0
33.9
40.3
31
#13
11PHXPhoenix Mercury8-17-4.9
50.0
17.6
28.1
34.6
39
#11
12LASLos Angeles Sparks10-13-5.6
52.2
17.7
28.7
32.2
49
#9
13PDXPortland Fire11-14-6.1
51.7
19.7
30.2
27.9
39
#12
14SEASeattle Storm6-20-6.4
48.5
19.0
27.8
28.6
19
#15
15CONConnecticut Sun6-18-8.3
47.1
18.4
33.0
33.7
30
#14

Factor Rankings — All Teams

Bars: longest = best · dashed line = league avg

Offense

Eff. FG%wt 40%
IND54.5MIN54.4LVA54.4NYL53.6DAL52.2LAS52.2TOR52.1PDX51.7GSV50.0PHX50.0ATL49.3CHI49.1SEA48.5WAS47.5CON47.1lg avg
TOV Ratewt 25%
DAL14.2GSV15.3LVA15.7CHI16.4MIN17.0TOR17.0ATL17.3PHX17.6LAS17.7CON18.4IND18.6SEA19.0NYL19.2PDX19.7WAS21.0lg avg
Off. Reb%wt 20%
ATL36.8WAS33.9MIN33.1CON33.0IND32.7GSV32.5NYL30.5DAL30.2PDX30.2LAS28.7CHI28.5PHX28.1TOR27.9SEA27.8LVA27.7lg avg
FT Ratewt 15%
WAS40.3CHI35.8ATL34.6PHX34.6CON33.7NYL33.4IND33.2LAS32.2TOR32.1LVA29.8GSV29.4SEA28.6PDX27.9MIN26.8DAL24.3lg avg

Defense

Opp. eFG%wt 40%
SEA47.9GSV48.2MIN48.3WAS48.4CHI49.6LVA50.1NYL50.1IND50.8DAL52.2PDX52.3TOR52.4CON52.7PHX54.2LAS54.2ATL55.2lg avg
Opp. TOV Ratewt 25%
ATL21.3CON19.7MIN19.2GSV19.2PDX18.4SEA17.6PHX17.4LAS17.2WAS17.1DAL16.9TOR16.7CHI16.5IND15.8LVA15.8NYL15.0lg avg
Opp. Off. Reb%wt 20%
IND26.2DAL27.1LVA27.6ATL28.3NYL28.7PHX28.8GSV30.1WAS30.4LAS32.0CON32.1MIN32.3SEA33.0CHI33.1TOR34.9PDX36.4lg avg
Opp. FT Ratewt 15%
NYL25.9PHX27.1LVA27.8DAL29.0WAS29.5ATL31.2MIN31.4SEA31.4LAS32.0GSV32.7TOR33.7CHI34.0PDX35.6IND36.3CON38.3lg avg

Offensive Factors vs. Net Rating

Green = positive net · orange line = trend · r = Pearson correlation

Eff. FG% vs Net

-10-50+5+1050MINGSVINDDALLVAATLNYLCHITORWASPHXLASPDXSEACONr = 0.60eFG%Net Rtg

3-pointer counts 1.5× a made 2. Single biggest driver of offense.

TOV Rate vs Net

-10-50+5+1014161820MINGSVINDDALLVAATLNYLCHITORWASPHXLASPDXSEACONr = -0.50TOV%Net Rtg

Turnovers per 100 possessions. Fewer = more scoring opportunities.

Off. Reb% vs Net

-10-50+5+103035MINGSVINDDALLVAATLNYLCHITORWASPHXLASPDXSEACONr = 0.38ORB%Net Rtg

Offensive rebounding rate. Second chances create easy buckets.

FT Rate vs Net

-10-50+5+1025303540MINGSVINDDALLVAATLNYLCHITORWASPHXLASPDXSEACONr = -0.37FTrNet Rtg

FTA per FGA. Free throws are unblockable, high-value scoring.

Team Four-Factor Profile

Minnesota Lynx

19-6 · Net +10.4

#1

Off · 68

#2

Def · 71

eFG%TOV%ORB%FTrOpp eFG%Opp TOV%Opp ORB%Opp FTr
MINLeague avg

Hover dots for details · Outer ring = best in league

FactorValueRankGradevs Avg

Offense

Eff. FG%54.4#2A++3.4
TOV Rate17.0#5B++0.6
Off. Reb%33.1#3B++2.3
FT Rate26.8#14D-4.6

Defense

Opp. eFG%48.3#3A++2.7
Opp. TOV Rate19.2#3B++1.6
Opp. Off. Reb%32.3#11B-1.5
Opp. FT Rate31.4#7B+0.0

Grade scale: A+ (top 17%) · A (top 33%) · B+ (top 50%) · B (top 67%) · C (top 83%) · D (bottom 17%)