W/AWNBAnalytics

Four Factors Framework

2026-27 · Regular season · 15 teams

How the Model Works

Dean Oliver identified four key factors that explain ~90% of a team's offensive and defensive efficiency. Each factor has an empirically-derived weight. The same four factors apply to both offense and defense — giving you 8 levers total.

Offense

Eff. FG%
40%
TOV Rate
25%
Off. Reb%
20%
FT Rate
15%

Defense

Opp. eFG%
40%
Opp. TOV Rate
25%
Opp. Off. Reb%
20%
Opp. FT Rate
15%

2026-27 Factor Leaders

Eff. FG%

56.3

IND

Indiana Fever

TOV Rate

15.0

DAL

Dallas Wings

Off. Reb%

35.3

ATL

Atlanta Dream

FT Rate

38.3

WAS

Washington Mystics

Opp. eFG%

47.9

GSV

Golden State Valkyries

Opp. TOV Rate

19.5

ATL

Atlanta Dream

Opp. Off. Reb%

26.4

ATL

Atlanta Dream

Opp. FT Rate

26.4

NYL

New York Liberty

Click headers to sort · Score = weighted composite

#TeamW-LNet ▼eFG%TOV%ORB%FTrScore
1GSVGolden State Valkyries32-12+9.2
50.2
15.1
32.1
27.5
54
#6
2MINMinnesota Lynx33-11+8.6
54.3
16.4
32.1
25.0
61
#5
3ATLAtlanta Dream30-14+8.4
50.6
16.4
35.3
34.4
63
#3
4INDIndiana Fever28-16+6.8
56.3
17.2
31.1
33.1
72
#1
5LVALas Vegas Aces31-13+6.8
55.0
15.2
26.5
29.5
63
#2
6DALDallas Wings27-17+4.9
52.7
15.0
31.2
26.5
62
#4
7NYLNew York Liberty26-18+3.7
53.6
18.2
31.5
31.2
53
#7
8WASWashington Mystics28-16+1.1
50.3
19.3
35.0
38.3
49
#8
9PHXPhoenix Mercury16-28-3.9
50.5
17.1
27.2
35.7
42
#9
10CHIChicago Sky16-28-4.4
49.8
16.0
26.7
32.5
40
#10
11LASLos Angeles Sparks16-28-5.0
52.7
18.1
27.2
29.2
38
#11
12PDXPortland Fire17-27-5.9
52.5
18.7
29.5
27.9
37
#13
13SEASeattle Storm8-36-8.0
48.2
18.3
29.7
27.6
22
#15
14TORToronto Tempo11-33-11.1
50.5
18.0
29.8
31.3
37
#12
15CONConnecticut Sun11-33-11.5
46.9
18.1
31.3
30.7
24
#14

Factor Rankings — All Teams

Bars: longest = best · dashed line = league avg

Offense

Eff. FG%wt 40%
IND56.3LVA55.0MIN54.3NYL53.6DAL52.7LAS52.7PDX52.5ATL50.6PHX50.5TOR50.5WAS50.3GSV50.2CHI49.8SEA48.2CON46.9lg avg
TOV Ratewt 25%
DAL15.0GSV15.1LVA15.2CHI16.0MIN16.4ATL16.4PHX17.1IND17.2TOR18.0LAS18.1CON18.1NYL18.2SEA18.3PDX18.7WAS19.3lg avg
Off. Reb%wt 20%
ATL35.3WAS35.0GSV32.1MIN32.1NYL31.5CON31.3DAL31.2IND31.1TOR29.8SEA29.7PDX29.5PHX27.2LAS27.2CHI26.7LVA26.5lg avg
FT Ratewt 15%
WAS38.3PHX35.7ATL34.4IND33.1CHI32.5TOR31.3NYL31.2CON30.7LVA29.5LAS29.2PDX27.9SEA27.6GSV27.5DAL26.5MIN25.0lg avg

Defense

Opp. eFG%wt 40%
GSV47.9WAS49.3SEA50.2MIN50.4LVA50.5DAL50.8CHI50.8NYL51.2IND51.8CON52.6ATL53.3PHX53.4PDX53.4LAS53.6TOR54.8lg avg
Opp. TOV Ratewt 25%
ATL19.5GSV19.2MIN19.0PDX18.1CON17.8LAS17.5SEA17.3LVA17.1PHX17.0CHI16.4IND16.1WAS15.9DAL15.7TOR15.7NYL14.5lg avg
Opp. Off. Reb%wt 20%
ATL26.4NYL26.9WAS27.6DAL28.0PHX29.0IND29.5LVA30.0GSV30.6CON31.2CHI31.5MIN32.1LAS32.3SEA32.9TOR33.7PDX34.5lg avg
Opp. FT Ratewt 15%
NYL26.4LVA27.5MIN27.9DAL28.2WAS28.2PHX28.3LAS28.5TOR30.7GSV31.6IND31.8SEA31.9ATL32.2CHI33.9PDX36.4CON36.9lg avg

Offensive Factors vs. Net Rating

Green = positive net · orange line = trend · r = Pearson correlation

Eff. FG% vs Net

-10-50+5+105055GSVMINATLINDLVADALNYLWASPHXCHILASPDXSEATORCONr = 0.61eFG%Net Rtg

3-pointer counts 1.5× a made 2. Single biggest driver of offense.

TOV Rate vs Net

-10-50+5+101618GSVMINATLINDLVADALNYLWASPHXCHILASPDXSEATORCONr = -0.60TOV%Net Rtg

Turnovers per 100 possessions. Fewer = more scoring opportunities.

Off. Reb% vs Net

-10-50+5+103035GSVMINATLINDLVADALNYLWASPHXCHILASPDXSEATORCONr = 0.40ORB%Net Rtg

Offensive rebounding rate. Second chances create easy buckets.

FT Rate vs Net

-10-50+5+10253035GSVMINATLINDLVADALNYLWASPHXCHILASPDXSEATORCONr = -0.09FTrNet Rtg

FTA per FGA. Free throws are unblockable, high-value scoring.

Team Four-Factor Profile

Golden State Valkyries

32-12 · Net +9.2

#6

Off · 54

#1

Def · 81

eFG%TOV%ORB%FTrOpp eFG%Opp TOV%Opp ORB%Opp FTr
GSVLeague avg

Hover dots for details · Outer ring = best in league

FactorValueRankGradevs Avg

Offense

Eff. FG%50.2#12B-1.3
TOV Rate15.1#2A++2.0
Off. Reb%32.1#3B++1.7
FT Rate27.5#13C-2.8

Defense

Opp. eFG%47.9#1A++3.6
Opp. TOV Rate19.2#2A++2.1
Opp. Off. Reb%30.6#8B-0.2
Opp. FT Rate31.6#9B+-1.3

Grade scale: A+ (top 17%) · A (top 33%) · B+ (top 50%) · B (top 67%) · C (top 83%) · D (bottom 17%)