Four Factors Framework

2026-27 regular season · 15 teams

How the Model Works

Dean Oliver identified four key factors that explain ~90% of a team's offensive and defensive efficiency. Each factor has an empirically-derived weight. The same four factors apply to both offense and defense — giving you 8 levers total.

Offense

Eff. FG%
40%
TOV Rate
25%
Off. Reb%
20%
FT Rate
15%

Defense

Opp. eFG%
40%
Opp. TOV Rate
25%
Opp. Off. Reb%
20%
Opp. FT Rate
15%

2026-27 Factor Leaders

Eff. FG%

56.8

IND

Indiana Fever

TOV Rate

15.0

GSV

Golden State Valkyries

Off. Reb%

36.5

ATL

Atlanta Dream

FT Rate

38.6

WAS

Washington Mystics

Opp. eFG%

48.3

GSV

Golden State Valkyries

Opp. TOV Rate

19.6

ATL

Atlanta Dream

Opp. Off. Reb%

26.7

NYL

New York Liberty

Opp. FT Rate

26.3

NYL

New York Liberty

Click headers to sort · Score = weighted composite

#TeamW-LNet ▼eFG%TOV%ORB%FTrScore
1GSVGolden State Valkyries29-11+9.5
50.6
15.0
32.2
27.3
55
#6
2MINMinnesota Lynx31-9+9.4
54.8
16.2
32.1
25.2
62
#2
3INDIndiana Fever26-14+7.6
56.8
17.3
31.5
33.0
72
#1
4ATLAtlanta Dream26-14+6.1
50.2
17.1
36.5
34.5
59
#4
5LVALas Vegas Aces27-13+4.9
54.4
15.2
26.4
29.7
60
#3
6DALDallas Wings24-16+4.5
52.5
15.0
30.9
26.4
58
#5
7NYLNew York Liberty24-16+3.6
53.7
18.0
31.2
31.4
54
#7
8WASWashington Mystics24-16-0.7
49.7
19.8
35.1
38.6
44
#8
9CHIChicago Sky15-25-3.4
49.5
15.9
27.3
33.2
42
#9
10PHXPhoenix Mercury14-26-3.9
50.4
17.0
26.9
35.6
42
#10
11PDXPortland Fire16-24-5.3
52.9
18.5
29.3
26.8
39
#12
12LASLos Angeles Sparks15-25-5.3
52.8
18.2
27.1
29.4
39
#13
13SEASeattle Storm8-32-6.4
48.5
18.1
29.6
27.8
26
#15
14TORToronto Tempo11-29-9.7
51.2
17.9
29.2
31.3
40
#11
15CONConnecticut Sun10-30-10.9
46.6
17.9
31.7
31.5
27
#14

Factor Rankings — All Teams

Bars: longest = best · dashed line = league avg

Offense

Eff. FG%wt 40%
IND56.8MIN54.8LVA54.4NYL53.7PDX52.9LAS52.8DAL52.5TOR51.2GSV50.6PHX50.4ATL50.2WAS49.7CHI49.5SEA48.5CON46.6lg avg
TOV Ratewt 25%
GSV15.0DAL15.0LVA15.2CHI15.9MIN16.2PHX17.0ATL17.1IND17.3TOR17.9CON17.9NYL18.0SEA18.1LAS18.2PDX18.5WAS19.8lg avg
Off. Reb%wt 20%
ATL36.5WAS35.1GSV32.2MIN32.1CON31.7IND31.5NYL31.2DAL30.9SEA29.6PDX29.3TOR29.2CHI27.3LAS27.1PHX26.9LVA26.4lg avg
FT Ratewt 15%
WAS38.6PHX35.6ATL34.5CHI33.2IND33.0CON31.5NYL31.4TOR31.3LVA29.7LAS29.4SEA27.8GSV27.3PDX26.8DAL26.4MIN25.2lg avg

Defense

Opp. eFG%wt 40%
GSV48.3SEA49.4WAS49.6MIN50.1CHI50.2LVA50.8DAL51.1IND51.6NYL51.8PDX53.2CON53.2PHX53.4LAS53.8TOR53.9ATL54.3lg avg
Opp. TOV Ratewt 25%
ATL19.6GSV19.1MIN19.0CON18.5PDX17.9LAS17.5SEA17.4PHX17.2LVA16.8CHI16.4IND15.9DAL15.9WAS15.7TOR15.7NYL14.5lg avg
Opp. Off. Reb%wt 20%
NYL26.7ATL26.8WAS27.2DAL28.2PHX28.7IND29.2LVA29.9GSV30.8CON31.1CHI31.5LAS32.3MIN32.7SEA33.2TOR34.1PDX34.7lg avg
Opp. FT Ratewt 15%
NYL26.3MIN27.6DAL27.7LVA28.0PHX28.1WAS28.3LAS28.4TOR31.6SEA31.9GSV32.4ATL32.4IND32.5CHI33.7PDX35.8CON37.1lg avg

Offensive Factors vs. Net Rating

Green = positive net · orange line = trend · r = Pearson correlation

Eff. FG% vs Net

-10-50+5+105055GSVMININDATLLVADALNYLWASCHIPHXPDXLASSEATORCONr = 0.60eFG%Net Rtg

3-pointer counts 1.5× a made 2. Single biggest driver of offense.

TOV Rate vs Net

-10-50+5+10161820GSVMININDATLLVADALNYLWASCHIPHXPDXLASSEATORCONr = -0.55TOV%Net Rtg

Turnovers per 100 possessions. Fewer = more scoring opportunities.

Off. Reb% vs Net

-10-50+5+103035GSVMININDATLLVADALNYLWASCHIPHXPDXLASSEATORCONr = 0.39ORB%Net Rtg

Offensive rebounding rate. Second chances create easy buckets.

FT Rate vs Net

-10-50+5+10253035GSVMININDATLLVADALNYLWASCHIPHXPDXLASSEATORCONr = -0.18FTrNet Rtg

FTA per FGA. Free throws are unblockable, high-value scoring.

Team Four-Factor Profile

Golden State Valkyries

29-11 · Net +9.5

#6

Off · 55

#1

Def · 79

eFG%TOV%ORB%FTrOpp eFG%Opp TOV%Opp ORB%Opp FTr
GSVLeague avg

Hover dots for details · Outer ring = best in league

FactorValueRankGradevs Avg

Offense

Eff. FG%50.6#9B-1.0
TOV Rate15.0#1A++2.1
Off. Reb%32.2#3B++1.7
FT Rate27.3#12D-3.1

Defense

Opp. eFG%48.3#1A++3.3
Opp. TOV Rate19.1#2A++2.0
Opp. Off. Reb%30.8#8B-0.3
Opp. FT Rate32.4#10B-2.0

Grade scale: A+ (top 17%) · A (top 33%) · B+ (top 50%) · B (top 67%) · C (top 83%) · D (bottom 17%)